Scalp ripples can predict development of epilepsy

Scalp ripples can predict development of epilepsy after first unprovoked seizure in childhood:

Objective

Identification of children at risk of developing epilepsy after a first unprovoked seizure can be challenging. Interictal epileptiform discharges are associated with higher risk but have limited sensitivity and specificity. High frequency oscillations (HFOs) are newer biomarkers for epileptogenesis. We prospectively evaluated the predictive value of HFOs for developing epilepsy in scalp EEG of children after a first unprovoked seizure.

Methods

After their first seizure, 56 children were followed prospectively over 12 months and then grouped in “epilepsy” or “no epilepsy”. Initial EEGs were visually analyzed for spikes, spike ripples and ripples. Inter‐group comparisons of spike‐ and HFO‐rates were done by Mann–Whitney U test. Predictive values and optimal thresholds were calculated by ROC curves.

Results

In the epilepsy group (n = 26, 46%), mean rates of ripples (0.3 vs. 0.09/min, p < 0.0001) and spike ripples (0.6 vs. 0.06/min, p < 0.05) were significantly higher, with no difference in spike rates (1.7 vs. 3.0/min, p = 0.38). Of those three markers, ripples showed the best predictive value (AUC_ripples 0.88). The optimal threshold for ripples was calculated to be ≥0.125/min with a sensitivity of 87% and specificity of 85%. Ripple rates were negatively correlated to days passing before epilepsy‐diagnosis (R = −0.59, p < 0.0001) and time to a second seizure (R = −0.64, CI ‐0.77 to 0.43, p < 0.0001).

Interpretation

We could show that in a cohort of children with a first unprovoked seizure, ripples predict the development of epilepsy better than spikes or spike ripples and might be useful biomarkers in the estimation of prognosis and question of treatment.

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