Predicting individualized mortality probabilities for patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the maxilla: Novel models with clinical and histopathological predictors

Fons J. B. Slieker MD  Remco de Bree MD, PhD  Ellen M. Van Cann MD, DMD, PhD
First published: 26 July 2019 https://doi.org/10.1002/hed.25879
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Abstract
Background
The aim of this article was to develop prediction models that calculate postoperative 2‐ and 5‐year mortality probabilities of patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the maxilla (MSCC).

Methods
Data were collected from the medical records of patients who had been operated between 2000 and 2015 for MSCC. Potential clinical and histopathological predictors were identified. Confounding‐(un)adjusted multivariate Cox and logistic regression models were computed with stepwise backward selection. Internal validation was performed to assess calibration and discriminatory ability.

Results
Ninety‐five patients with MSCC were included. Two‐year follow‐up was complete, and 85 patients had 5‐year follow‐up. Age, neck treatment, surgical margins, bone invasion, spindle growth, and vasoinvasive growth were associated with mortality. Models were adjusted for confounding with Charlson's comorbidities index. C‐indexes were .841 and .770 respectively, and .838 and .749 after bootstrapping.

Conclusion
The MSCC‐specific mortality probability can be calculated with new prediction models.