Socioeconomic predictors of suicide risk among cancer patients in the United States: A population-based study Publication date: December 2019 Source: Cancer Epidemiology, Volume 63 Author(s): Omar Abdel-Rahman Abstract Objective To assess the socioeconomic predictors of suicide risk among cancer patients in the United States. Methods Cancer patients available within Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database who were diagnosed between 2000–2010 have been reviewed. Linkage analysis to Census 2000 SF files was conducted to determine area-based socioeconomic attributes. Observed/ Expected ratios were calculated for the overall cohort as well as for clinically and socioeconomically defined subgroups. “Observed” is the number of observed completed suicide cases in the studied cohort; while “Expected” is the number of completed suicide cases in a demographically similar cohort within the United States and within the same period of time. Results The current study reviews a total of 3,149,235 cancer patients (diagnosed 2000–2010) within the SEER database. Regarding socioeconomic county attributes, higher risk of suicide seems to be associated with lower educational attainment (O/E for counties with > 20% individuals with less than high school education: 1.41; 95% CI: 1.35–1.47), poverty rates (O/E for counties with > 5% individuals below poverty line: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.34–1.43), unemployment rates (O/E for counties with >5% families below poverty line: 1.36; 95% CI: 1.31–1.41) and less people living in urban areas (O/E for counties with < 50% individuals living in urban areas: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.50–1.77). On the other hand, risk of suicide seems to be inversely related to a higher representation of foreign-born individuals (O/E for counties with < 5% foreign-born individuals: 1.56; 95% CI: 1.47–1.65); and inversely related to a higher representation with recent immigrants to the US (O/E for counties with < 5% recent immigrants: 1.33; 95% CI: 1.29–1.38). Conclusions Cancer patients living in a socioeconomically vulnerable environment (lower educational status, poverty, and unemployment) seem to have higher suicide risk compared to other cancer patients.

Effectiveness of bivalent and quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccination in Luxembourg Publication date: December 2019 Source: Cancer Epidemiology, Volume 63 Author(s): Ardashel Latsuzbaia, Marc Arbyn, Jessica Tapp, Marc Fischer, Steven Weyers, Pascale Pesch, Joël Mossong Abstract Background In Luxembourg, the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program introduced in 2008, provided either bivalent (BV) or quadrivalent (QV) vaccines to girls aged 12–17 years. Here, we estimate the effectiveness of BV and QV vaccines combined and separately in reducing type-specific HPV prevalence eight years after the introduction of the vaccination program. Methods A cross-sectional prevalence study was conducted among women aged 18–29 years in 2015-2017. Seven hundred sixteen participants were recruited at family planning centres or private gynaecology practices in Luxembourg. Vaccination records were verified in the social security database. Cervical samples were tested using the Anyplex II HPV28 assay. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated using logistic regression. Results In total, 363/716 (50.7%) participants were HPV positive with any HPV and 209/716 (29.2%) with carcinogenic HPV genotypes. HPV vaccination offered high protection against HPV16/18 (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 0.13; 95% CI 0.03-0.63), HPV6/11 (AOR = 0.16; 95% CI 0.05-0.48) and cross-protection against HPV31/33/45 (AOR = 0.41; 95% CI 0.18-0.94). The AORs were generally enhanced when only considering vaccination before sexual debut corresponding to AORs: 0.05 (95% CI 0.00-0.88), 0.08 (95% CI 0.02-0.36) and 0.20 (0.06-0.65) against HPV16/18, HPV6/11 and HPV31/33/45, respectively. We observed significant protection against carcinogenic genotypes included in nonavalent vaccine for BV (AOR = 0.29; 95% CI 0.13-0.67), but not for QV (AOR = 0.81; 95% CI 0.47–1.40) (heterogeneity Chi2 P = 0.04). Conclusions Our study suggests high effectiveness of HPV vaccination against HPV6/11, HPV16/18 and a cross-protection against HPV31/33/45. Vaccination effectiveness was slightly higher for women vaccinated before sexual debut.

The binary presence or absence of lymph node metastasis or extrathyroidal extension is not associated with survival in papillary thyroid cancers: Implications for staging systems Publication date: December 2019 Source: Cancer Epidemiology, Volume 63 Author(s): Hyun-Soo Zhang, Eun-Kyung Lee, Yuh-Seog Jung, Byung-Ho Nam, Boyoung Park Abstract Background The characteristics of diagnosed papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) have changed over time with the increasing trend of early diagnosis, and the survival impact of conventional prognostic factors such as lymph node metastasis (LNM) and extrathyroidal extension (ETE) is controversial. We investigated PTC prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and disease specific survival (DSS), focusing on LNM, ETE, and their implications for PTC staging systems. Methods We assessed prognostic factors for OS and DSS in a nationwide sample of Korean PTC patients (N = 5192, median follow-up 121 months) using Cox regression. The binary presence or absence of LNM and ETE, as well as other measures of LNM and ETE, were examined for their survival impact. We also evaluated the relative performance of PTC staging systems before and after revising the staging criteria for LNM and ETE. Results The binary presence of LNM or ETE was not a prognostic factor for OS or DSS, nor were other various measures of LNM. However, the extent of ETE as none, microscopic, or gross independently influenced survival (OS hazard ratio for gross vs. none: 3.28, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.97–5.46; DSS hazard ratio for gross vs. none: 3.75, 95% CI 1.59–8.81). The performance of PTC staging systems improved when the extent of ETE and/or location of LNM were used as staging components. Conclusion The extent of ETE and/or location of LNM may be better survival indicators than their binary presence or absence, and we propose staging criteria revisions to pertinent staging systems to better reflect the contemporary PTC population.

Epidemiological trends of neuroendocrine tumours over three decades in Queensland, Australia Publication date: December 2019 Source: Cancer Epidemiology, Volume 63 Author(s): David Wyld, Mark H. Wan, Julie Moore, Nathan Dunn, Philippa Youl Abstract Introduction While neuroendocrine tumours (NETs) account for only a small proportion of cancer diagnoses, incidence has been rising over time. We examined incidence, mortality and survival over three decades in a large population-based registry study. Methods This retrospective study included all cases (n = 4580) of NETs diagnosed from 1986 to 2015 in Queensland, Australia. We examined directly age-standardised incidence and mortality rates. The impact on overall survival according to demographic factors and primary site was modelled using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression (HR). Cause-specific and relative survival were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier survival function. Results Annual incidence increased from 2.0 in 1986 to 6.3 per 100,000 in 2015, while mortality remained stable. The most common primary site was appendix followed by lung, small intestine and rectum. Rectal, stomach, appendiceal and pancreatic NETs had the greatest rate increase, while lung NETs decreased over the same period. Five-year cause-specific survival improved from 69.4% during 1986–1995 to 92.6% from 2006 to 2015. Survival was highest for appendiceal and rectal NETs and lowest for pancreas and unknown primary sites. The risk of dying within five years of diagnosis was about 40% higher for males (HR = 1.41, 95%CI 1.20–1.65) and significantly higher for patients aged over 40 years compared to younger patients (p < 0.001). Conclusion This study, including 30 years of data, found significantly increasing rates of NETs and confirms results from elsewhere. Increasing survival over time in this study, likely reflects increased awareness, improvements in diagnostic imaging, greater use of endoscopy and colonoscopy, and the development of new therapies.

Incidence, mortality, and survival trends of soft tissue and bone sarcoma in Switzerland between 1996 and 2015 Publication date: December 2019 Source: Cancer Epidemiology, Volume 63 Author(s): Attila Kollár, Christian Rothermundt, Frank Klenke, Beata Bode, Daniel Baumhoer, Volker Arndt, Anita Feller, the NICER Working Group Abstract Background Research on soft-tissue sarcoma (STS) and bone sarcoma (BS) is increasingly in the focus of physicians and pharmaceutical companies. Expanding knowledge has improved the management of sarcoma and possibly survival. Here we provide the first population-based data on time trends of incidence, mortality, and survival of STS and BS diagnosed in Switzerland between 1996 and 2015. Methods We performed a retrospective registry study with data from the National Institute for Cancer Epidemiology and Registration (NICER) database in Switzerland between 1996 and 2015. Results We identified 5384 STS patients and 940 BS patients. The three most common STS subtypes were undifferentiated/unclassified sarcoma (22.3%), liposarcoma (20.6%) and leiomyosarcoma (20.6%). Chondrosarcoma, osteosarcoma and Ewing sarcoma represented 40.4%, 27.0% and 15.2% of the BS group, respectively. The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates in 2011–2015 were 4.43 and 1.42 per 100,000 person-years for STS, and 0.91 and 0.42 for BS. Age-standardized incidence of STS in males was significantly higher during 1996–2000 than during 2001–2015; however, mortality rates did not change significantly over time. Five-year relative survival (RS) for STS improved significantly from 56.4% (95%CI 52.9–59.7 for 1996–2001) to 61.6% (95%CI 58.6–64.4 for 2011–2015) (p = 0.025). No improvement in 5-year RS for BS could be observed (RS 1996–2000: 69.6%, 95%CI 61.2–76.6; RS 2011–2015: 73.1%, 95%CI 66.6–78.6; p = 0.479). Conclusion Incidence rates of STS and BS have been stable since 2001. The longer RS in STS can be attributed to advances in sarcoma patient management.

Patient non-attendance at urgent referral appointments for suspected cancer and its links to cancer diagnosis and one year mortality: A cohort study of patients referred on the Two Week Wait pathway Publication date: December 2019 Source: Cancer Epidemiology, Volume 63 Author(s): Rebecca Sheridan, Steven E. Oliver, Geoff Hall, Victoria Allgar, Philip Melling, Edward Bolton, Karl Atkin, Denise Denton, Sarah Forbes, Trish Green, Una Macleod, Peter Knapp Abstract Background The ‘Two Week Wait’ policy aims to ensure patients with suspected cancer are seen within two weeks of referral. However, patient non-attendance can result in this target being missed. This study aimed to identify predictors of non-attendance; and analyse the relationship between attendance and outcomes including cancer diagnosis and early mortality. Methods A cohort study of 109,433 adults registered at 105 general practices, referred to a cancer centre within a large NHS hospital trust (April 2009 to December 2016) on the ‘Two Week Wait’ pathway. Results 5673 (5.2%) patients did not attend. Non-attendance was largely predicted by patient factors (younger and older age, male gender, greater deprivation, suspected cancer site, earlier year of referral, greater distance to the hospital) over practice factors (greater deprivation, lower Quality and Outcomes Framework score, lower cancer conversion rate, lower cancer detection rate). 10,360 (9.6%) patients were diagnosed with cancer within six months of referral (9.8% attending patients, 5.6% non-attending patients). Among these patients, 2029 (19.6%) died within 12 months of diagnosis: early mortality risk was 31.3% in non-attenders and 19.2% in attending patients. Conclusions Non-attendance at urgent referral appointments for suspected cancer involves a minority of patients but happens in predictable groups. Cancer diagnosis was less likely in non-attending patients but these patients had worse early mortality outcomes than attending patients. The study findings have implications for cancer services and policy.

A population-based study of soft tissue sarcoma incidence and survival in Australia: An analysis of 26,970 cases Publication date: December 2019 Source: Cancer Epidemiology, Volume 63 Author(s): Taryn Bessen, Gillian E Caughey, Sepehr Shakib, J. Alexa Potter, Jessica Reid, Gelareh Farshid, David Roder, Susan J. Neuhaus Abstract Background Soft tissue sarcomas (STS) are rare, often fatal tumors, but little is known of the epidemiology and survival in the Australian population. This study aims to provide the first epidemiological analysis of incidence and survival rates of STS in the Australian population. Methods A retrospective population-based observational study was conducted between 1982 and 2009 of all patients with a diagnosis of STS using the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) Australian Cancer Database. Incidence rates per 100,000; incidence rate ratios, age-standardized incidence rates, prevalence and incidence rates of subtypes of STS, median, one-year and 5-year survival rates were examined. Results A total of 26,970 patients were identified. Between 1982 and 2009 STS incidence rates significantly increased from 3.99 [95% CI 3.68–4.32] to 6.12 [95% CI 5.80–6.46] per 100,000 Australian population, with a peak incident rate ratio (IRR) of 1.59 [95% CI 1.51–1.69] (p < 0.0001) in 2001. Median age at diagnosis increased from 58 to 63 years. Incidence rates were stable across all 10-year age cohorts, except for people aged over 70 where it increased. Overall, age-standardized incidence rates increased from 4.70 [95% CI 4.42–5.00] in 1982 to 5.87 [95% CI 5.63–6.11] per 100 000 Australians in 2009. Leiomyosarcoma (20.43%), malignant fibrous histiocytoma (16.14%), and soft tissue tumors/sarcomas, not otherwise specified (10.18%) were the most common STS subtypes. Median survival from diagnosis increased from 5.80 years [95% CI 5.06–6.54] in 1985–1989 cohort to 8.18 years [95% CI 7.54–8.81] in the 2000–2004 cohort (log-rank test p < 0.0001). Conclusion The incidence of STS is increasing in Australia, most noticeably in those aged over 70 years, with a small but statistically significant increase in overall survival rates.

Trends in disability-adjusted life years of lung cancer among women from 2004 to 2030 in Guangzhou, China: A population-based study Publication date: December 2019 Source: Cancer Epidemiology, Volume 63 Author(s): Xiao Lin, Michael S Bloom, Zhicheng Du, Yuantao Hao Abstract Background Forecast of disease burden in lung cancer is an important health agenda. One of the main challenges is to predict the evolution of trends in disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of lung cancer so as to anticipate the future burden and to coordinate the supply of sufficient health services and care. Methods Using 2004–2013 cancer registry data in Guangzhou, we fitted Bayesian age-period-cohort models with age, period, and cohort effects to analyze trends of lung cancer among women, and then made forecast for DALY of lung cancer until 2030. Results During 2004–2013, there was an annual average of 10,582 DALYs for lung cancer (15.84% of total DALY). In 2014–2030, DALY is expected to reach 234,752 person-years for lung cancer (12.25% of total DALY), with an annual mean of 13,809 DALYs. Lung cancer crude DALY rate is projected to rise steadily from 257.56 (95% uncertainty interval: 165.97–361.22) in 2014 to 316.99 (219.96–419.41) per 100,000 women in 2030, and the rise is mainly seen in 45–64 years age group. Lung cancer DALY rate remains the highest in the 65–89 years age group. Conclusions Women at 65–89 years carry the highest lung cancer burden among other age groups in Guangzhou. The DALY rate of lung cancer is projected to increase most precipitously for the 45–64 years age group. This indicates that concerted efforts are needed to develop adequate cancer services, and to reassess health resources for control and care of lung cancer in these populations.

Impact of universal health care and screening on incidence and survival of Thai women with cervical cancer: A population-based study of the Chiang Mai Province Publication date: December 2019 Source: Cancer Epidemiology, Volume 63 Author(s): Patumrat Sripan, Imjai Chitapanarux, Miranda M Fidler-Benaoudia, Adalberto Miranda-Filho, Aude Bardot, Donsuk Pongnikorn, Puttachart Maneesai, Narate Waisri, Chirapong Hanpragopsuk, Ekkasit Tharavichitkul, Isabelle Soerjomataram Abstract Universal Health Coverage (UHC) was implemented in Thailand in 2002. This study aims to compare cervical cancer incidence and survival before and after the implementation of UHC, including the national screening program, in the Chiang Mai population in Northern Thailand. Data of women diagnosed with in situ or malignant cervical cancer in Chiang Mai during 1998–2012 were used in our analysis. Annual age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) and age-adjusted relative survival (RS) were estimated for the following three diagnosis periods: period I: 1998–2002 (before UHC), period II: 2003–2007 (UHC implementation) and period III: 2008–2012 (after UHC). The ASR peaked in 2001 at 38 per 100,000, and then subsequently declined to 23 per 100,000 in 2012. The proportion of in situ and localized tumors increased in all age groups, while regional tumors declined. In all women (aged 15–89) with malignant cervical cancer or in situ, the 5-year RS in Period I, Period II and Period III was 73%, 74% and 77%, respectively; when only malignant cases were considered, the RS was 63%, 61% and 62%, respectively. In the screening target women (aged 30–59) with malignant or in situ tumors, the 5-year RS was 84%, 88% and 90%, respectively, in the three periods, while the RS was 71%, 74% and 75%, respectively, in only those with malignant cancers. The introduction of UHC including national cervical cancer screening program has likely reduced the magnitude and severity of cervical cancer and improved the survival of cervical cancer in the screening target age group.

Clinicopathologic and epidemiological characteristics of prognostic factors in post-surgical survival of colorectal cancer patients in Jiangsu Province, China Publication date: October 2019 Source: Cancer Epidemiology, Volume 62 Author(s): Said Abasse Kassim, Weiyan Tang, Muhammad Abbas, Shenzhen Wu, Qingdao Meng, Chengcheng Zhang, Xiaobo Li, Rui Chen Abstract Poor survival among colorectal cancer (CRC) patients has been widely associated with clinico-epidemiological features and treatment regimen. In Jiangsu (China), however, it is not known which one of the prognostic factors explains the survival disparities among patients with CRC. This prospective study using 1078 patients (stages I-IV) that underwent surgery at Jiangsu Hospital, explored the relevant factors affecting the prognoses of right-side colon cancer (RCC), left-side colon cancer (LCC) and rectal cancer (ReC) patients. Of these cases, 234 (21.7%), 241 (22.4%) and 603 (55.9%) were found to have RCC, LCC and ReC respectively. Compared to LCC, RCC exhibited a greater proportion of older patients, poorly differentiated carcinomas, higher T-stage and higher TNM-stage. The overall survival (OS) for RCC was 60 vs.78 or 77 months for LCC or ReC respectively (P = 0.030). There were no significant differences in OS between LCC and ReC across the subgroups (P = 0.633). In multivariate analysis, RCC patients had age (>60 vs. ≤60 years, HR = 1.529, P = 0.019), N-stage (N1 vs. N0, HR = 4.056, P = 0.012) and M-stage (M1 vs. M0, HR = 3.442, P < 0.0001) as independent prognostic factors, whereas smoking status was found to be a predictor of mortality (smoker vs. nonsmoker, HR = 2.343, P = 0.017) for LCC. In addition, age (>60 vs. ≤60 years, HR = 2.199, P < 0.0001), alcohol consumption (drinker vs. nondrinker, HR = 0.510, P = 0.034), tumor grade (Poor vs. well/moderate, HR = 2.759, P = 0.031) and T-stage (T3-4 vs. T1-2, HR = 1.742, P < 0.0001) were found to be predictors of mortality for ReC. There were significant pairwise interactions across subgroups. Furthermore, significant differences were observed for LCC vs. RCC (OS, HR = 0.783, P = 0.039), but no statistically significant differences for ReC vs. RCC (P = 0.149) and LCC vs. ReC (P = 0.355). Nevertheless, significant differences remained between ReC vs. RCC for male (HR = 0.591, P = 0.009), drinker (HR = 0.396, P = 0.005), rural resident (HR = 0.437,P = 0.022), tumor grade (well/moderate, HR = 0.475, P = 0.022), T-stage (T1-2, HR = 0.362, P = 0.001), N-stage (N0, HR = 0.604, P = 0.011), M-stage(M0, HR = 0.401, P = 0.006) and TNM-stage (I-II, HR = 0.567, P = 0.005). Statistically significant differences were observed for LCC vs. RCC for gender (female, HR = 0.495, P = 0.003) and T-stage (T1-2, HR = 0.417, P = 0.010) as well as for LCC vs. ReC in patients with smoking habits (HR = 1.951, P = 0.002) and M-stage (M0, HR = 2.291, P = 0.003). These findings suggest that the variations in CRC post-surgical survival in China may be primarily explained with the clinicopathologic features and epidemiological characteristic of the patients. Patients with RCC had significantly worse OS compared to both LCC and ReC in several subgroups.