How Argentina became a super-exporter of agricultural and food products during the First Globalisation (1880–1929) Abstract The objective of this paper is to explain, from a cliometric perspective, the determinants of the growth of Argentina’s exports between 1880 and 1929. To do this, we have constructed a gravity model with the principal products exported each year by Argentina to its most important trading partners. In this way, we believe that this study constitutes a relevant and original contribution to the analysis of economic growth from a historical perspective and specifically in explaining the factors determining the export success of the settler countries during the first wave of globalisation. Our results show that Argentina’s export-led growth must be explained from both the supply and demand sides. We also find that the reduction in trade costs and trade liberalisation, especially the latter, boosted exports. We also support the idea that Argentina had a successful agro-export sector because it offered a diverse basket of products to the different European and American countries that consumed them. To sum up, we can conclude that Argentina took advantage of a multilateral and open economic system. Within this context, the country generally found a demand for its supply, which constitutes the key to explaining the magnitude and speed of Argentina’s export growth.

The rise of public schooling in nineteenth-century Imperial Austria: Who gained and who paid? Abstract The rise of education features prominently in the debate on the sources of modern economic growth. Existing accounts stress the importance of popular demand for its public provision. We argue that such an explanation for the spread of schooling is a poor fit for many nations’ schooling histories, such as Imperial Austria. We show that in the Austrian case, schooling and economic development had limited impact on each other; that the popular demand for schooling was weak and that the push for school expansion came mainly from the top of the political hierarchy.

Rethinking the take-off: the role of services in the new economic history of Italy (1861–1951) Abstract The article discusses the new series of services GDP for Italy (1861–1951), which have been incorporated in the Italian historical accounts. Three main results emerge. First, the new historical estimates of services appear to be more reliable than the previous ones, published by Istat (Indagine statistica sullo sviluppo del reddito nazionale dell’Italia dal 1861 al 1956. Annali di Statistica, Istat, Rome, 1957). Second, the differences between the estimates of services make up for most of the differences observed between the old GDP series and the new one, and they have a significant impact on the performance of the Italian economy, also in international comparisons. Third, cointegration analysis suggests the presence of a significant break at the end of the nineteenth century, in line with industry: since then, the traditional services lagged behind, while the innovative ones (and since the Great War also social/collective services) shared the same rising trend as industry. This result confirms the idea of a «great transformation» of the Italian economy, first pioneered by Gerschenkron, which began at the end of the nineteenth century arguably as a consequence of institutional and political changes.

More than 100 years of improvements in living standards: the case of Colombia Abstract We examine the long-term trends observed in the living standard of the Colombian population over more than 180 years. We construct a Historical Index of Human Development (HIHD) for Colombia for the nineteenth and twentieth centuries and find modest advances in the index during the nineteenth century, life expectancy being the dimension that contributed most to the Colombian Human Development Index in that century. In contrast, all HIHD components exhibited significant advances during the twentieth century. In particular, social dimensions were the main contributors to a growing Human Development Index in Colombia, and life expectancy was the main driver for both men and women. These achievements are mainly explained by the role of public policies aimed at the improvement of education and health. Next, since life expectancy was the dimension that most contributed to human development in the long run, we empirically examine the role of improvements in the provision of public utilities in the significant reduction of mortality. Our hypothesis is that the reduction of mortality was largely brought about by improvements in the provision of aqueducts and sewerage. To this end, we construct a new dataset using statistics reported by the Colombian government, which included annual information on the main diseases and causes of mortality during the 1916–2014 period disaggregated by departments. Econometric results show that the decline in mortality rates, especially those related to some waterborne diseases, was significantly related to the expansion of aqueducts and sewerage services in the country.

How much did uncertainty shocks matter in the Great Depression? Abstract The USA in the 1930s experienced unprecedented uncertainty. Uncertainty shocks buffeted the economy during recessionary periods, but these shocks receded during the recovery periods of the Great Depression. Using vector autoregressions on monthly data for 1919–1941, I show that a one standard deviation increase in uncertainty decreased investment, GDP, industrial output, employment, hours worked, wages, and the price level. I perform a historical decomposition simulation to see how much uncertainty shocks mattered for explaining movements in major variables during the Depression. Roughly 40–70% of the simulated decline in output can be explained by uncertainty shocks in the Great Depression.

A new estimate of Lithuanian GDP for 1937: How does interwar Lithuania compare? Abstract Utilizing archival data from the Lithuanian Central Bureau of Statistics, we piece together the most complete gross domestic product (GDP) figure during the interwar period for Lithuania in accordance with the System of National Accounts (SNA 2008). Lithuania and the other Baltic states have largely been ignored by economic historians due to the short time spans of their independence in the interwar period (1918–1940), their relatively small sizes, and the scarcity of data—we attempt to fill this gap in the historical record. As a practical application of our new GDP estimate for 1937, we convert our estimate into 1990 Geary–Khamis dollars so that we can test the hypothesis that Lithuanian economic growth under communism was below average when compared to its European neighbors using data from the Maddison Project. We find that the economic growth rate in Lithuania was above average from 1937 to 1973, even when compared to other communist economies. Alternatively, from 1973 to 1990, growth collapsed and was below average. Using a difference-in-difference strategy we also find a significant GDP per capita penalty for communist countries in Europe over the studied time periods.

Today’s economic history and tomorrow’s scholars Abstract While first highlighted by Romer (J Econ Educ 25:49–66, 1994), economic history has only continued to become more integrated into the broader discipline. This paper utilizes a sample of recent articles in top Economics journals to help assess what characteristics economic history papers share and a sample of recent graduate syllabi to examine the role that a required economic history class can play more broadly in the training of economists. The samples confirm that economic history research utilizing a wide range of topics and tools is being published in top economics journals and taught in economic history classes. The findings suggest that economic history is a complement to the research of other fields and that a required economic history class offers an early applied course that could help students regardless of what field they go on to pursue.

The long-term evolution of economic history: evidence from the top five field journals (1927–2017) Abstract The growing appeal of the long-run perspective among economists and the fiftieth anniversary of the publication of the Conrad and Meyer article (1958), which marked the official beginning of the Cliometric Revolution, have attracted a lot of interest on economic history. This paper explores the long-term development of economic history by analysing all the 6516 articles published in the top five international journals (Economic History Review, Journal of Economic History, Explorations in Economic History, European Review of Economic History and Cliometrica). Our main results are that the Cliometric Revolution took quite a long time to fully display its effects. We show that the conventional wisdom on the current state of the discipline seems a bit too optimistic. Economic history does not seem to be neither more comparative nor more focussed on peripheral countries. The historical periods studied do not change considerably, and the relevance of different topics did not change univocally. Most articles use some econometrics but only a minority feature advanced techniques. Economic history is indeed becoming more democratic, but its boundaries remain limited to the most advanced countries. Articles by authors from Continental Europe increased substantially, while that of North American declined. This change may be the harbinger of a new divergence between the two shores of the Atlantic, possibly related to the rise of a new paradigm, but it is too early to tell.

Medical education reforms and the origins of the rural physician shortage Abstract In the first two decades of the twentieth century, medical schools increased standards for admission and added basic science to their curricula. During this time period, the probability a new medical school graduate located in a rural area declined by 40%. Using novel data from the American Medical Directories, we find that physicians trained in more rigorous programs with higher admission standards were less likely to set up practice in rural areas. While all physicians were being drawn to metropolitan areas during this period, the pull was stronger for graduates of the higher quality schools. We also find some evidence that physicians trained in the more scientifically and clinically based programs were more strongly attracted to places with more hospitals. These findings suggest that the medical education reforms of the early twentieth century contributed to the urban–rural disparity in access to physician care.

From boom to bust: a typology of real commodity prices in the long run Abstract This paper considers the evidence on real commodity prices from 1900 to 2015 for 40 commodities, representing 8.72 trillion US dollars of production in 2011. In doing so, it suggests and documents a comprehensive typology of real commodity prices, comprising long-run trends, medium-run cycles, and short-run boom/bust episodes. The main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) real commodity prices have been on the rise—albeit modestly—from 1950; (2) there is a pattern—in both past and present—of commodity price cycles, entailing large and long-lived deviations from underlying trends; (3) these commodity price cycles are themselves punctuated by boom/bust episodes which are historically pervasive.